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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Almost 2000 degrees and diplomas conferred at Winter Graduation
2015-06-26

Live streaming will be available on: http://livestream.ufs.ac.za/

The 2015 Winter Graduations are almost underway. The highlight on the university calendar for every graduate will take place on the Bloemfontein Campus on 1-2 July 2015. On 1 July 2015, diplomas will be awarded by the Centre of Financial Planning Law (331 in total) and the School of Open Learning (376 in total). On 2 July 2015, a total of 1 220 master’s and doctoral degrees will be awarded to graduates from all seven faculties.

A highlight at this year’s Winter Graduation is the awarding of three honorary degrees by the university. Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi, Dr Mercy Oduyoye and Mr John Samuel will receive honorary degrees.

On 17 August 2012, Ambassador Brahimi was appointed by the United Nations as the new peace envoy to Syria, replacing Kofi Annan. He is also a member of the Commission on Legal Empowerment of the Poor, the first global initiative to focus specifically on the link between exclusion, poverty and the law. Prof Heidi Hudson, Head of the Centre for Africa Studies at the UFS, will receive the honorary degree on his behalf.

Dr Oduyoye is widely regarded as one of the most influential women theologians Africa has produced in recent history. Currently, she directs the Institute of African Women in Religion and Culture at the Trinity Theology Seminary in Legon, Ghana.

Mr John Samuel, who will receive an honorary award, is also scheduled to be a guest speaker at the two ceremonies on 1 July 2015.

Wednesday 1 July 2015:

John Samuel will be the speaker at both ceremonies. He is one of South Africa’s leading education experts with international and national experience, covering a period of more than forty years. He was involved in the founding of the South African Campaign: Public Participation in Education Network (PPEN), established the Centre for Education Policy Development, the Joint Working Group (for The National Party Government and the ANC), the National Education Conference, and the National Education and Training Forum. He also made leadership contributions to the First Education and Training White Paper, the Transformation Strategy for the National Education Department, and the first Green Paper on Higher Education.

John is also Senior Programme Director of the WK Kellogg Foundation in the USA. He has also been the Chief Executive of the Nelson Mandela Foundation, and the CEO of the Oprah Winfrey Leadership Academy for Girls.

Thursday 2 July 2015:

Nataniël will be the speaker at both ceremonies. Nataniël is a singer, songwriter, and South African entertainer, who has crossed from the alternative circuit to the stage. For the past 10 years, he has become well-known for his outspoken Kaalkop column in SARIE magazine. His solo career was launched in 1987 and, since then, he has released 16 albums, staged more than 70 original theatre productions, and published 15 books. Over the past two decades, Nataniël has gained the title of South Africa’s leading exponent of the solo stage act. He manages Kaalkop Studio, his lifestyle retail company, and records on his own independent label, Nataniël House Of Music. He is an ambassador for Child Welfare SA, and also heads his own charitable foundation, The Nataniël Progress Project.

 

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