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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS Communication and Brand Management receives two prestigious international awards

2015-07-07

Lelanie de Wet, Lacea Loader and Leonie Bolleurs

The Department of Communication and Brand Management at the University of the Free State (UFS) received two of the six Gold Quill Awards – that were awarded to South African companies and institutions - at the International Association of Business Communicator’s (IABC) Excellence Gala ceremony in San Francisco, US on 15 June 2015.

The awards ceremony formed part of the 2015 IABC World Conference, which took place from 14-17 June 2015. The department received a Gold Quill Excellence Award for its social media campaign, UFS #FaceOfFacebook and a Gold Quill Merit Award for the B Safe Take Action campaign.

From the 15 countries that entered, a total of 120 Gold Quill Excellence awards and 189 Gold Quill Merit awards were awarded. Other South African award winners included Barclays Africa Group Limited, Mediclinic and the Cape Peninsula University of Technology (CPUT).

This is the second year in a row that the UFS has been recognised by the IABC for its communication projects. In 2014, the department was awarded the Jake Wittmer Research Award for a Stakeholder Perception Audit conducted in February 2014. The audit was considered – by the IABC - as one of the best breakthrough strategies used by a university to measure the perceptions of its stakeholders.This made the UFS the first tertiary institution in Africa to receive the research award. The stakeholder perception audit also received an Africa Gold Quill in 2014.

"Being recognised by a global association such as the IABC for the second time, is a great honour and I am very proud of what my colleagues have achieved by entering the two campaigns. Winning the awards is a true indication of what can be done when a team of expert communicators is committed towards engaging their target audiences with campaigns that speak of quality and innovation. The fact that the UFS is one of only two tertiary education institutions in the country to receive these prestigious awards, makes it even more special," said Lacea Loader, Director: Communication and Brand Management at the UFS.

IABC World and Africa conferences 2015

The IABC is a global membership association with a network of 12 000 members in more than 80 countries, representing many of the Global Fortune 500 companies. It serves professionals in the field of business communication, bringing together the profession’s collective disciplines.

With the theme: Changing landscape: Informing the future, the 2015 world conference was attended by over 1 200 delegates from across the world. Delegates were offered an opportunity for learning, discovering, and connecting. Loader also made a presentation entitled ‘Award-winning measurement endorses sound reputation management strategy’ at the world conference.

The department will also be receiving two Africa Gold Quill Awards from the Africa chapter of the IABC for the same campaigns on 30 July 2015 in Johannesburg.

UFS #FaceOfFacebook Campaign

The university received a Gold Quill Excellence Award for its social media campaign, UFS #FaceOfFacebook. This initiative originated in the university’s commitment to its Human Project, which sets the standard for good behaviour and care.

Lelanie de Wet, Manager: Social Media and Website Content and project leader of UFS #FaceOfFacebook, said the project was born from the need to communicate with students. Thus a virtual friend, #FaceOfFacebook, was created. “Yearly auditions are being held to choose the new face representing the UFS on Facebook. Short video clips of the #FaceOfFacebook – whether it is attending events or communicating important messages - are posted on the UFS Facebook page. The successful candidate holds the title #FaceOfFacebook for 12 months.

“When I look at a campaign such as #FaceOfFacebook, from the time it took its first tentative steps in 2013, and see how it inspired staff and students alike, my heart swells with pride. Often you can see the impact you have made only in retrospect. The ripples you send into the world will inevitably create waves,” she said.

B Safe Take Action Campaign

The B Safe Take Action campaign of the university received a Gold Quill Merit award from the IABC.

The campaign was activated in September 2013. “It targeted on- and off-campus students and staff, aiming to create social ownership of personal safety, and to raise awareness of the safety measures put in place by the university,” said Leonie Bolleurs, Manager: Internal Communication and project manager of the campaign.

The campaign looked at a number of safety aspects, focusing not only on crime but also on being safe from road accidents and stress/burnout.

It is the second time this year that the BSafe campaign has been recognised for its innovative strategy. Earlier this year it received a PRISM Award (Gold) from the Public Relations Institute of Southern Africa (PRISA). The annual PRISM Awards are about recognising and celebrating great public relations campaigns.

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