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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Graduates convene with global leaders at the UFS 2015 Winter Graduation ceremonies
2015-07-07

Dr Hendrik Auret, dr Gerhard Bosman en dr Madelein Stoffberg.
Foto: Leonie Bolleurs

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The University of the Free State’s 2015 Winter Graduations, which took place from 1-2 July 2015 on the Bloemfontein Campus offered several highlights. Three global leaders received honorary doctorates. A further 2 000 degrees and diplomas were conferred to graduates in the seven faculties of the university.

For the first time in the history of the UFS, three PhDs in Architecture were awarded simultaneously. Hendrik Auret, Gerhard Bosman, and Madelein Stoffberg’s outstanding achievements are a milestone in the university’s pursuit of academic excellence.

Furthermore, three PhDs were conferred on graduates from the Department of Consumer Science in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences. Ismari van der Merwe, Natasha Cronje, and Gloria Seiphetlheng set a precedent when they walked across the Callie Human stage to collect their doctorates at the same graduation ceremony.

This year, the university produced 66 Doctors of Philosophy in various fields of study. Six of these PhDs were awarded in the Department of Physics. Three graduates in the Department of Soil- and Crop- and Climate Sciences received PhDs at the Winter Graduation. They are Tesha Mardamootoo, Elmarie Kotzé, and David Chemei.

Dr John Samuel.
Photo: Johan Roux

Keynote speakers provide enlightenment to graduates

On Wednesday 1 July 2015, Dr John Samuel, SA’s leading education expert, addressed 707 diploma graduates from the Centre for Financial Planning Law and the School of Open Learning. For the graduates’ future reference, Samuel offered invaluable knowledge he had accumulated over the years as Chief Executive of the Nelson Mandela Foundation. “One of the lessons I have learnt was not only the importance of time, but it was in fact what being on time demonstrated,” he said. “Being on time was demonstrating respect, respect for the people you are meeting, and for the occasion.”

On the second day of graduation, Nataniël, South African singer, songwriter, and entertainer spoke to Master’s and doctoral graduates in the Faculties of Economic and Management Sciences, Humanities, Education, Health Sciences, Law, Theology, and Natural and Agricultural Sciences. His keynote spoke to the graduates’ sense of resolve in saying, “nothing is ever accidental. It is always with a purpose, it is your turn to make the world a better place.” He added that “it is important to strive for excellence and to be proud of what you are doing.”

Honorary doctorate recipients in a nutshell

Dr Samuel is one of the three exceptional global leaders to receive honorary doctorates from the university on 1 July 2015. His accolade was presented by the Faculty of Education. He has contributed to the Public Participation Education Network (PPEN) campaign as a founding member. He established the Centre for Education Policy Development, the Joint Working Group (for The National Party Government and the ANC), the National Education Conference, and the National Education and Training Forum. In addition, he made leadership contributions to the First Education and Training White Paper, the first Green Paper on Higher Education, and is the CEO of the Oprah Winfrey Leadership Academy for Girls. The WK Kellogg Foundation in the USA operates under his directorship.

Professor Heidi Hudson, Director of the Centre for Africa Studies at the UFS and Dr Lakhdar Brahimi.
Photo: Mike Rose from Mike Rose Photography

Dr Lakhdar Brahimi received an honorary doctorate from the Centre for Africa Studies. Algerian-born Brahimi was first involved with the United Nations (UN) in 1992, and has since been deployed all over the world on peacekeeping missions. Amongst many other countries, he has worked as a mediator for South Africa, Haiti, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Burundi, Angola, Liberia, Nigeria, Sudan, and Côte d’Ivoire on behalf of the UN. He also played a direct role in South Africa’s democratic transition as a special representative in 1993/4.

Dr Mercy Amba Oduyoye received an honorary doctorate from the Faculty of Theology. Dr Oduyoye is widely regarded as one of the most influential women theologians in Africa. She was the first black woman to receive a degree in Theology in 1965 from Cambridge University in the United Kingdom. She continues to shift the paradigm of gender in theology internationally as the director of the Institute of African Women in Religion and Culture at the Trinity Theology Seminary in Ghana.

Dr Mercy Oduyoye.
Photo: Johan Roux

In closing the academic celebrations

Vice Rector: Academic, Dr Lis Lange, commended the class of 2014 for making their contribution to the educational system. Prof Jonathan Jansen, Vice Chancellor and Rector, also congratulated the graduates in closing.

“This is a day many have worked very hard towards, it is an enormous achievement as well as a development in the quality of research, and the courage to research,” he said in a vote of confidence.

Dr Khotso Mokhele, Chancellor of the UFS, applauded the university in light of the increased number of female graduates who completed their degrees with distinctions. The transcendence of demographics, both in terms of gender and race, on a postgraduate level, increases the hope of achieving gender equality in both the academic arena and South Africa.

More graduation news

A number of distinctions were also awarded during the two-day ceremony. For a list of these distinctions, follow this link.

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