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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Faculty of Education hosts global education conference
2015-11-09



The Faculty of Education at the University of the Free State hosted the Annual conference of the South African Education Research Association (SAERA).  From the left are Profs André Keet, Director of the Institute for Reconciliation and Social Justice, Sechaba Mahlomaholo, Dean: Faculty of Education, Carlos Torres, keynote speaker and Professor of Social Sciences and Comparative Education, and former Director of the UCLA-Latin American Center, and Azlam Fataar, SAERA president.

National and global issues, trends, and research were discussed at the annual conference of the South African Education Research Association (SAERA), hosted by the Faculty of Education at the University of the Free State.

Considered as the highlight for educators, education researchers, and education policy makers, this conference is linked directly to the World Education Research Association (WERA), and to the American Education Research Association (AERA).

More than 400 delegates from national and international universities, as well as other interest groups such as the Department of Higher Education and Training of South Africa, have submitted abstracts on a variety of topics, spanning the different disciplines in education.

Keynote Speaker, Prof Carlos Torres, Professor of Social Sciences and Comparative Education, and former Director of the UCLA-Latin American Center, explained the importance of global citizenship education.

“The requirements to enable global citizenship education are clarification, bare essentials, principles, teaching methods, and agents. Global citizenship education is an intervention in search of a theory.”

Prof Torres's areas of theoretical research focus on the relationship between culture and power, the interrelationships of economic, political, and cultural spheres, and the multiple and contradictory dynamics of power among, and within, social movements that make education a site of permanent conflict and struggle.

Prof Teboho Moja, policy researcher and policy analyst for higher education in South Africa, spoke enthusiastically about changes taking place currently in higher education, changes that are driven by the recent demands of university students. Her keynote address dealt with equality and equity in higher education in South Africa.

“This conference is taking place whilst ‘something’ is happening in South Africa. This ‘something’ had to happen to achieve equity in higher education. Recent events on campuses left me proud to see the unity amongst students. Will the next phase in transformation and reform see that the doors of learning will be opened to all, as stated in the Freedom Charter?”

Prof Moja has authored articles on higher education reform issues in areas such as the governance of higher education, policy processes, and impact of globalisation on higher education.

“Hosting a conference of this magnitude validated the research work of the Faculty of Education in particular. It also positioned the Faculty positively in the national and international conversations around education research and gave the Faculty the opportunity to showcase its research, teaching, community engagement, and most importantly its organisational skills,” said Prof Sechaba Mahlomaholo, Dean of the Faculty of Education. According to Prof Mahlomaholo, staff (academic and support) in the Faculty have benefited greatly from listening to and networking with outstanding scholars from across the broad spectrum of education disciplines in the world. “These scholars also role modelled excellence in education research, which both our students and academic staff are now working towards emulating and surpassing,” he said.


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