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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

New South African literature festival offers something for everyone

2016-03-23

The University of the Free State (UFS) in partnership with the Vrystaat Arts Festival is proud to present the first literature festival in central South Africa from 11-16 July in Bloemfontein. Afrikaans books and writers will feature prominently, in addition to other indigenous languages such as Sotho and Zulu. Several authors will be celebrating literature in English.

Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the University of the Free State Professor Jonathan Jansen says: ‘The aim of the festival, part of the bigger Vrystaat Arts Festival, is to strengthen a culture of reading, not just in the Free State but nationally. The festival will market books as well as embrace new developments in the field of writing. I am incredibly excited about this inaugural event, which the university will support in the long-term.’

The theme of this year’s literature festival is ‘Our Africa’ and promises to provide all booklovers and readers tantalizing food for thought. Some of the authors attending the festival include, amongst others, the Hertzog-prize winner Adam Small, celebrating his 80th birthday as well as the release of his latest drama. Another legendary writer, dramaturge and actor, John Kani, will be speaking at the festival about his most recent theatre productions. The ever popular Marita van der Vyver will be visiting the festival from France, and the highly acclaimed writer Zakes Mda, will be flying in from the United States to deliver the inaugural Sol Plaatje Lecture. Mda, also a visual artist, will have some of his works on display.

Other international guests include Chika Unigwe, originally from Nigeria, who rose to fame in Belgium, and was described by South African writer Zukiswa Wanner as one of the five most renowned writers from Africa. Also attending will be Iranian writer Kader Abdolah, whose novels have been translated into more than 21 languages. Abdolah, a political refugee who escaped from Iran to the Netherlands in the 1980s, went on to establish himself as one of the most prominent Dutch novelists. Wilfried N’Sondé, originally from the Congo, who now lives in France, will also be a festival guest.

Theo Kemp, Coordinator of the Literature Festival says: ‘It is critical for us that robust debates on current affairs takes place as part of the festival. Festival participants will be able to engage with a range of authors on topical and sometimes sensitive issues. We welcome this debate – it is rare to have a platform where we can argue passionately yet respectfully about the future of our country in an international context.’

Critical topics covered include themes such as the state of Africa’s economies (with analyst and writer Victor Kgomoeswana); the relevance of the Anglo-Boer War in contemporary society (with Albert Blake and Johan Kruger); philosopher Achille Mbembe talking with Kevin Bloom and Richard Poplak about the changing face of Africa; and the political analysts Susan Booysen and John Matisonn examining the South African landscape in a post-municipal election environment.

Theuns Eloff, previous Rector of the University of Potchefstroom, whose new book What now, South Africa is launched this year, will partake in discussions around current affairs. So to Melanie Verwoerd and Sonwabiso Ngcowa aim to explore the phenomenon of the so-called ‘born frees’ in their book 21 at 21: The Coming of Age of A Nation.

Climate change and its impact on the Free State’s environment is another critical topic covered by Bob and Mary Schole with their book launch of Climate Change: Briefings from Southern Africa.

Festival goers can also look forward to a poetry café, where music and poetry will be mixed; informal visits with writers around food and story telling; as well as word and music productions where popular travel writers such as Johan Bakkes, Dana Snyman, Erns Grundling and Pienkes du Plessis will be present.

Writers will also be involved in a range of panel discussions – including on the ethics of writing biographies (Lindie Koorts and Mark Gevisser); alternative narratives of South Africa in the eighties (Ivan Vladislavic and Johann Roussouw); and discussions with writers such as Hans du Plessis, Bernard Odendaal, Hanlie Retief, Rudie van Rensburg and Irma Joubert.

Workshops will also feature in the programme with writers such as Francois Smith and Henning Pieterse, associated with the Department of Afrikaans and Dutch at the UFS, offering short courses on creative writing; while Johann Roussouw from the Department of Philosophy at the UFS will present a series of talks on the books of Karel Schoeman.

The final festival programme will be launched on 28 April 2016.

The Vrystaat Literature Festival was initiated by the University of the Free State in partnership with the Vrystaat Arts Festival. Project sponsors include Media24, ATKV, Vlaamse Letterenfonds, Institut Francais, Nederlandse Letterfonds, Van Rensburg Pataloe and the Flemish Embassy.

For further enquiries contact:
Theo Kemp
theo.kemp@volksblad.com
+27(0)83 462 9613
www.vrystaatartsfestival.co.za

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