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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Researcher part of project aimed at producing third-generation biofuels from microalgae in Germany
2016-05-09

Description: Novagreen bioreactor  Tags: Novagreen bioreactor

Some of the researchers and technicians among the tubes of the Novagreen bioreactor (Prof Grobbelaar on left)

A researcher from the University of the Free State (UFS), Prof Johan Grobbelaar, was invited to join a group of scientists recently at the Institute for Bio- and Geo-Sciences of the Research Centre Jülich, in Germany, where microalgae are used for lipid (oil) production, and then converted to kerosene for the aviation industry.

The project is probably the first of its kind to address bio-fuel production from microalgae on such a large scale.  

“The potential of algae as a fuel source is undisputed, because it was these photoautotrophic micro-organisms that were fixing sunlight energy into lipids for millions of years, generating the petroleum reserves that modern human civilisation uses today.  However, these reserves are finite, so the challenge is marrying biology with technology to produce economically-competitive fuels without harming the environment and compromising our food security.  The fundamental ability that microalgae have to produce energy-rich biomass from CO2, nutrients, and sunlight through photosynthesis for biofuels, is commonly referred to as the Third-Generation Biofuels (3G),” said Prof Grobbelaar.

The key compounds used for bio-diesel and kerosene production are the lipids and, more particularly, the triacylglyserols commonly referred to as TAGs.  These lipids, once extracted, need to be trans-esterified for biodiesel, while a further “cracking” step is required to produce kerosene.  Microalgae can store energy as lipids and/or carbohydrates. However, for biofuels, microalgae with high TAG contents are required.  A number of such algae have been isolated, and lipid contents of up to 60% have been achieved.

According to Prof Grobbelaar, the challenge is large-scale, high-volume production, since it is easy to manipulate growth conditions in the laboratory for experimental purposes.  

The AUFWIND project (AUFWIND, a German term for up-current, or new impetus) in Germany consists of three different commercially-available photobioreactor types, which are being compared for lipid production.

Description: Lipid rich chlorella Tags: Lipid rich chlorella

Manipulated Chlorella with high lipid contents (yellow) in the Novagreen bioreactor

The photobioreactors each occupies 500 m2 of land surface area, are situated next to one another, and can be monitored continuously.  The three systems are from Novagreen, IGV, and Phytolutions.  The Novagreen photobioreactor is housed in a glass house, and consist of interconnected vertical plastic tubes roughly 150 mm in diameter. The Phytolutions system is outdoors, and consists of curtains of vertical plastic tubes with a diameter of about 90 mm.  The most ambitious photobioreactor is from IGV, and consists of horizontally-layered nets housed in a plastic growth hall, where the algae are sprayed over the nets, and allowed to grow while dripping from one net to the next.

Prof Grobbelaar’s main task was to manipulate growth conditions in such a way that the microalgae converted their stored energy into lipids, and to establish protocols to run the various photobioreactors. This was accomplished in just over two months of intensive experimentation, and included modifications to the designs of the photobioreactors, the microalgal strain selection, and the replacement of the nutrient broth with a so-called balanced one.

Prof Grobbelaar has no illusions regarding the economic feasibility of the project.  However, with continued research, optimisation, and utilisation of waste resources, it is highly likely that the first long-haul flights using microalgal-derived kerosene will be possible in the not-too-distant future.

Prof Grobbelaar from the Department of Plant Sciences, although partly retired, still serves on the editorial boards of several journals. He is also involved with the examining of PhDs, many of them from abroad.  In addition, he assisted the Technology Innovation Agency of South Africa in the formulation of an algae-biotechnology and training centre.  “The chances are good that such a centre will be established in Upington, in the Northern Cape,” Prof Grobbelaar said.

 

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