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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

State of our campuses: Impact of non-completion of the 2016 academic year on UFS students

2016-10-08

Dear Parents/Guardians and Students,

Impact of non-completion of the 2016 academic year

The University of the Free State (UFS) reiterates its support and commitment to the cause of free higher education. We have stated our position in all the available spaces. We want to work with UFS students to put pressure on the government to commit itself to accept the many suggestions put forward to make free education possible within a negotiated timeframe.

We are also seriously committed to our responsibility of providing education to all students enrolled at the university. We are doing our outmost to ensure that we can resume academic activities next week.

Description: " Academic non-completion 2016 Tags: " Academic non-completion 2016

We want to bring to your attention what will happen to individual students if the UFS cannot resume classes fully on Monday 10 October 2016.

Currently we have extended the academic year by one week. Some faculties are working on Saturdays and Sundays, starting earlier and finishing later to complete the material that needs to be taught and the practical work that students need to do to be able to write exams.

In the three biggest faculties at the university: Education, the Humanities, and Natural Sciences, this is what will happen:

Education will fail to graduate 1 193 students
Humanities will fail to graduate 1 125 students
Natural and Agricultural Sciences will fail to graduate 1 390 students

In the professional faculties: Economic and Management Sciences, Health Sciences, and Law, this will happen:

Economic and Management Sciences will fail to graduate 997 students
Health Sciences will fail to graduate 633 students
Law will fail to graduate 619 students

In total, approximately 6 000 students will not receive complete transcripts of their degrees and the certificates for their qualifications.

The university currently has 3 238 students on NSFAS bursaries. None of these students will be able to apply for bursaries for the lost year. They will be regarded as having failed or not completed their courses. They will not only miss this year, but the opportunity of studying in the future.

These students come from families to which their success in higher education was supposed to mean a change in the future of the entire family. Some parents/guardians hold more than one job to be able to pay tuition fees.

In not allowing the year to continue and students to finish, we are throwing away the efforts that entire families of poor people have made for four or five years to put their children through university. The promise of free education for future generations means nothing to these families who are poor in the present.

In terms of the academic calendar, it is a false argument to say that universities will be able to enrol first-years, because what 2016 students will miss, is the second semester.

We do not have the capacity to teach double the number of students in the second semester. This also misses the point that those students who were completing modules in order to graduate, will waste an entire year (assuming they have funding) to complete their degrees. This argument does not see the knock-on effect that students, not promoting in modules from first to second and second to third year, etc., will have. Finally, this also misses the point of what will happen to students who have to repeat first-semester modules.

In terms of academic staff, students are discounting the willingness of academic staff to teach double or to have the academic year extended by approximately six weeks between teaching and examinations. The same can be said for all the administrative and support staff required for running the university.

In our case, all the students in the University Preparation Programme (UPP) on the South Campus in Bloemfontein will be stuck without being able to move into mainstream modules, preventing a new intake of UPP students for 2017. These are the poorest and most disadvantaged students at the UFS.

It is absolutely necessary to find a means of protest and political action that will not jeopardise the future of current students and the country’s desperate need for critical skills. The interdict against violent protest secured by the UFS is still in force. The police will intervene if the interdict is not respected and the UFS will have no control over police actions.

We trust that parents/guardians and students understand the implications of the situation.

Kind regards,

Prof Nicky Morgan
Acting Rector
University of the Free State

Released by:
Lacea Loader (Director: Communication and Brand Management)
Telephone: +27 51 401 2584 | +27 83 645 2454
Email: news@ufs.ac.za | loaderl@ufs.ac.za
Fax: +27 51 444 6393

State of our campuses #11: Academic activities on UFS campuses continue

State of our campuses #10: Impact of non-completion of the 2016 academic year on UFS students

State of our campuses #9: Academic programme on all UFS campuses to resume on Monday 10 October 2016

State of our campuses #8: UFS extends vacation as from 28 September until 7 October 2016, 28 September 2016

State of our campuses #7: All three UFS campuses will be closed today, 27 September 2016.

State of our campuses #6: All UFS campuses reopen on Tuesday 27 September 2016

State of our campuses #5: UFS campuses to remain closed on Monday 26 September 2016

State of our campuses #4: Decisions about the UFS academic calendar

State of our campuses #3: UFS campuses closed until Friday 23 September 2016

State of our campuses #2: UFS Bloemfontein and South Campuses closed on Tuesday 20 September 2016 (19 September 2016)

State of our campuses #1: Academic activities suspended on UFS Bloemfontein Campus (19 September 2016)

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