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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Research contributes to improving quality of life for cancer patients
2016-11-21

Description: Inorganic Chemistry supervisors  Tags: Inorganic Chemistry supervisors

Inorganic Chemistry supervisors in the Radiopharmacy
Laboratory during the preparation of a typical complex
mixture to see how fast it reacts. Here are, from the left,
front: Dr Marietjie Schutte-Smith, Dr Alice Brink
(both scholars from the UFS Prestige
Scholar Programme), and Dr Truidie Venter (all three
are Thuthuka-funded researchers).
Back: Prof André Roodt and Dr Johan Venter.
Photo: Supplied

Imagine that you have been diagnosed with bone cancer and only have six months to live. You are in a wheelchair because the pain in your legs is so immense that you can’t walk anymore – similar to a mechanism eating your bones from the inside.

You are lucky though, since you could be injected with a drug to control the pain so effective that you will be able to get out of the wheelchair within a day-and-a-half and be able to walk again. Real-life incidents like these provide intense job satisfaction to Prof André Roodt, Head of Inorganic Chemistry at the University of the Free State (UFS). The research, which is conducted by the Inorganic Group at the UFS, contributes greatly to the availability of pain therapy that does not involve drugs, but improves the quality of life for cancer patients.

The research conducted by the Inorganic Group under the leadership of Prof Roodt, plays a major role in the clever design of model medicines to better detect and treat cancer.

The Department of Chemistry is one of approximately 10 institutions worldwide that conducts research on chemical mechanisms to identify and control cancer. “The fact that we are able to cooperate with the Departments of Nuclear Medicine and Medical Physics at the UFS, the Animal Research Centre, and other collaborators in South Africa and abroad, but especially the methodology we utilise to conduct research (studying the chemical manner in which drugs are absorbed in cancer as well as the time involved), enhances the possibility of making a contribution to cancer research,” says Prof Roodt.

Technique to detect cancer spots on bone
According to the professor, there are various ways of detecting cancer in the body. Cancer can, inter alia, be identified by analysing blood, X-rays (external) or through an internal technique where the patient is injected with a radioactive isotope.

Prof Roodt explains: “The doctor suspects that the patient has bone cancer and injects the person with a drug consisting of an isotope (only emits X-rays and does no damage to tissue) that is connected to a phosphonate (similar to those used for osteoporosis). Once the drug is injected, the isotope (Technetium-99m) moves to the spot on the bone where the cancer is located. The gamma rays in the isotope illuminate the area and the doctor can see exactly where treatment should be applied. The Technetium-99m has the same intensity gamma rays as normal X-rays and therefore operates the same as an internal X-ray supply.” With this technique, the doctor can see where the cancer spots are within a few hours.

The same technique can be used to identify inactive parts of the brain in Alzheimer patients, as well as areas of the heart where there is no blood supply or where the heart muscle is dead.

Therapeutic irradiation of cancer
For the treatment of pain connected with cancer, the isotope Rhenium-186 is injected. Similar to the manner in which the Technetium-99m phosphonate compound is ingested into the body, the Rhenium-186 phosphonate travels to the cancer spots. Patients thus receive therapeutic irradiation – a technique known as palliative therapy, which is excellent for treating pain. A dosage of this therapy usually lasts for about two months.

The therapy is, however, patient specific. The dosages should correspond with the occurrence and size of cancer spots in the patient’s body. First, the location of the cancer will be determined by means of a technetium scan. After that, the size of the area where the cancer occurs has to be determined. The dosage for addressing total pain distribution will be calculated according to these results.

Technique to detect cancer spots on soft tissue
Another technique to detect cancer as spots on bone or in soft tissue and organs throughout the body is by utilising a different type of irradiation, a so-called PET isotope. The Fluor-18 isotope is currently used widely, and in Pretoria a machine called a cyclotron was produced by Dr Gerdus Kemp, who is a former PhD graduate from the Inorganic Research Group. The F-18 is then hidden within a glucose molecule and a patient will be injected with the drug after being tranquillised and after the metabolism has been lowered considerably. The glucose, which is the ‘food' that cancer needs to grow, will then travel directly to the cancer area and the specific area where the cancer is located will thus be traced and ‘illuminated’ by the Fluor-18, which emits its own 'X-rays'.

In the late 80s, Prof Roodt did his own postdoctoral study on this research in the US. He started collaborating with the Department of Nuclear Medicine at the UFS in the early 90s, when he initiated testing for this research.

Through their research of more than 15 years, the Inorganic Group in the Department of Chemistry has made a major contribution to cancer research. Research on mechanisms for the detection of cancer, by designing new clever chemical agents, and the chemical ways in which these agents are taken up in the body, especially contributes to the development in terms of cancer therapy and imaging, and has been used by a number of hospitals in South Africa.

The future holds great promise
Prof Roodt and his team are already working on a bilateral study between the UFS and Kenya. It involves the linking of radio isotopes, as mentioned above, to known natural products (such as rooibos tea), which possess anti-cancer qualities.

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