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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS produces an inspirational Summer Graduation
2016-12-12

Description: Dr Ferial Haffajee summer graduation Tags: Dr Ferial Haffajee summer graduation 

Dr Ferial Haffajee, editor-at-large at The Huffington
Post SA, who was conferred with an honorary doctorate,
and Dr Khotso Mokhele, the Chancellor of the
University of the Free State at this year’s Summer Graduation.
Photo: Eugene Seegers

“A graduation ceremony epitomises every student’s academic dream and pursuit, and allows you to look back as you enter the professional career of your choice.”

These were the words of guest speaker Dr Mafu Rakometsi, Chief Executive Officer of Umalusi, that resonated through the Callie Human Centre at this year’s Summer Graduation on the Bloemfontein Campus. He mentioned that today graduates would look back at a journey that started with hesitant steps, and despite all their ups and downs, they had managed to make it this far.

During the afternoon session, Prof Lis Lange, Vice-Rector: Academic, at the University of the Free State (UFS), said that graduations were always an occasion for celebration and this year, there were two reasons for these celebrations.

 “The first is simply that we made it through a difficult 2016 and the secondly because we are celebrating two crucial professions that will attribute to the well-being of this country, namely teachers and health practitioners.”

Meaningful graduation ceremony for Ferial Haffajee

This year, the UFS had the privilege and honour to confer editor-at-large at The Huffington Post SA, Ferial Haffajee, with an honorary doctorate in the Faculty of the Humanities.

Speaking after the graduation ceremony, Dr Haffajee said, “It was really, really meaningful for me, because I’ve never been able to graduate. When I finished university, it was during the struggle against apartheid, so we didn’t graduate. It was a wonderful day and wonderful to see the role that young people are playing on this campus.”

“Dr Ferial Haffajee has made a significant contribution to press freedom in South Africa. She is known both nationally and internationally for the work she has done and therefore it is an honour to welcome her as a Kovsie. She is one of the people who represent the values of the UFS. We are proud of her and we wish her great success,” said Prof Milagros Rivera, Head: Department of Communication Science and acting Dean of the Faculty of the Humanities at the UFS.

Description: Summer graduation 2016 general photo Tags: Summer graduation 2016 general photo 

Photo: Johann Roux

Inspiration drawn from graduation ceremonies

During his address, Dr Khotso Mokhele, the Chancellor of the UFS, made special mention of many that inspired him at the graduation ceremonies.

His inspirations included Dr Ambrotius Swartbooi, who suffered a spinal injury from a near-fatal car accident which left him paralysed and a quadriplegic, yet who still managed to receive his doctorate; Setsoane Ntseki, a matriculant with poise and an incredible voice, who delivered the song item; Judge Ian van der Merwe, Chairperson of the Council at the UFS and a close friend of Dr Mokhele, with whom he worked for many years; as well Dr Haffajee, a trail-blazer that many look up to.

Damian Viviers was recognised as one of the youngest PhD graduates in the Faculty of Law, where he received a PhD in Mercantile Law. He is a research fellow in the Department of Mercantile Law, and was recently appointed as candidate attorney in the commercial department at Phatshoane Henney Attorneys.

In closing, his message to the class of 2016 was simple, that even though the world and our country may find itself in an odd space now, the graduates needed to remember that even though they would become leaders, there was always something bigger than themselves.

“Go out there and do us proud. Come back and plough back into this institution not only with your money, but your skills and time too.”

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