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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Message of appreciation from the UFS acting Vice-Chancellor and Rector: Prof Nicky Morgan
2017-01-04

Dear Colleagues, Students, Parents/Guardians, Alumni, and Friends of the university

The University of the Free State (UFS) successfully completed the 2016 academic year, with the official examination ending on 14 December 2016.  We have also completed the last of our graduation ceremonies, and are now preparing to accommodate the additional and ad hoc examinations in the coming weeks.
 
This comes after the university has successfully readjusted its academic programme in October 2016, subsequent to the disruption of activities and programmes for almost a month. All of this could not have happened without the extraordinary support and dedication of the staff and majority of the students at the UFS.
 
I would like to thank all our staff, parents/guardians, alumni, and friends of the UFS for the role they played during these challenging months in order to ensure that we could end the academic year successfully. If it was not for your understanding and uncompromising support, we would not have been able to complete the curricula, continue with the exams, and end the year in this way.
 
However, we all know that this was not an easy task. The sheer dedication and drive of our academic staff to adapt the mode of teaching and assessment of modules must be applauded, as it took courage and perseverance. Not only did they manage to complete the curricula, they also managed to do the assessment almost completely online. The incredible role of our administrative and support staff – including our security personnel – should also be acknowledged with deep appreciation.
 
This has been a learning experience for all, which has provided us with a solid base for academic recovery in the future.
 
During its quarterly meeting on 2 December 2016, the UFS Council expressed appreciation to all staff, students, and the university management for the successful completion of the 2016 academic year.
 
To all our alumni and donors who continued to support the UFS this year – thank you for your commitment, loyalty, and continued contribution.
 
Looking forward to 2017
The UFS announced on 7 December 2016 that it will be increasing tuition and housing and residence fees for 2017 by 8%. The approved increase in fees is in line with the recommendations by the Minister of Higher Education and Training, Dr Blade Nzimande, on 19 September 2016. The increases were approved by the UFS Council on 2 December 2016, with the understanding that it would be paid by the Department of Higher Education and Training by means of the fee adjustment grant for qualifying students with a combined family income of not more than R600 000 per annum.

The university management is aware of the economic realities in South Africa, as well as the financial pressure households are experiencing. The long-term financial sustainability of the UFS, as well as the financial constraints which impact teaching and learning, research, and community service, continues to remain of utmost importance to the Council and to the senior leadership of the UFS.
 
The university management stated its pro-poor approach to student funding on several occasions; that academically deserving students from poor and working class families should receive substantial financial support. For this reason – also because it does not place a burden on poor and working-class families – an increase in tuition fees aligned with the DHET proposal was submitted to Council for approval. The presidents of the Bloemfontein and Qwaqwa Campus Student Representative Councils were present and participated in the discussion on fees – also when Council approved the increase.
 
I am thankful to report that more applications for admission were received for 2017 (42 568) in comparison to 2016 (29 284), and we are excited to welcome first-year students to our campuses in January 2017. See 2017 calendar of events and information.
 
The necessary safety measures have been taken and contingency plans are in place when students return in 2017. The university management will continue to work with the South African Police Service to ensure stability on the campuses and the uninterrupted continuance of the Academic Project.
 
In conclusion, I would like to wish you a restful and safe Festive Season. Thank you once again for your crucial role in making the University of the Free State still one of the universities of choice in the country.
 
Best regards
 
Prof Nicky Morgan
Acting Vice-Chancellor and Rector
University of the Free State

 

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