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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Dr Francois Deacon appears in international film, Last of the Longnecks, due to research on giraffes
2017-04-04

Description: Giraffe research read more  Tags: Giraffe research read more

Dr Francois Deacon was invited by the producer of Last
of the Longnecks
to be part of a panel handling a question-
and-answer-session about the film.
Photo: Supplied

A great honour was bestowed on a researcher at the University of the Free State (UFS) when he was invited to the preview of the documentary film, Last of the Longnecks. Dr Francois Deacon, lecturer and researcher in the Department of Animal, Wildlife and Grassland Sciences at the UFS, who also has a role in the film, attended the preview at the Carnegie Institution for Science’s Smithsonian National Museum in Washington DC, in the US, in March this year. The preview formed part of the DC Environmental Film Festival.

The Environmental Film Festival in the US capital is the world’s leading showcase of films with an environmental theme and which aims to improve the public’s understanding of the environment through the power of film. During the festival, the largest such festival in the US, more than 150 films were shown to an audience of 30 000 plus. 

Dr Deacon was invited by the producer of Last of the Longnecks to be part of a panel handling a question-and-answer-session about the film directly after the show. He described it as the greatest moment of his life. 

Role in the film Last of the Longnecks

“My role in the film was as the researcher studying giraffes in their natural habitat in order to understand them better, so that we may better protect them, and be able to provide better education on the problem in Africa,” says Dr Deacon. 

“Together with Prof Nico Smit, also from the UFS Department of Animal, Wildlife and Grassland Sciences, Hennie Butler from the Department of Zoology, and Martin Haupt from Africa Wildlife Tracking, we were the first researchers in the world to equip giraffes with GPS collars and to conduct research on this initiative,” he says. This ground-breaking research has attracted international media attention to Dr Deacon and Prof Smit. 

“Satellite tracking is proving to be extremely valuable in the wildlife environment. The unit is based on a mobile global two-way communication platform, utilising two-way data satellite communication, complete with GPS systems.

“It allows us to track animals day and night, while we monitor their movements remotely from a computer over a period of a few years. These systems make the efficient control and monitoring of wildlife in all weather conditions and in near-to-real time possible. We can even communicate with the animals, calling up their positions or changing the tracking schedules,” says Dr Deacon.

The collars, which have been designed to follow giraffes, enable researchers to obtain and apply highly accurate data in order to conduct research. Data can be analysed to determine territory, distribution or habitat preference for any particular species.

Over a period of three years (2014-2016), the Last of the Longnecks team from Iniosante LLC captured on film how Dr Deacon and his team used the GPS collars in Africa to collect data and conduct research on the animals.

“With our research, which aims to understand why giraffes are becoming extinct in Africa, we are looking at the animal in its habitat but not only the animal on its own. If the habitat of these animals is lost, they will be lost as well. Therefore, our focus is on conservation and better understanding the habitat. The giraffe is only a tool to better understand the habitat problem,” says Dr Deacon. 

Since the beginning of his research Dr Deacon and his team have had six new collar designs, with animals in four different reserves being equipped with the collars. The collars use the best technology available in the world and make it possible to determine how giraffes communicate over long distances, and how their sleep patterns function. Physiological and biological focus is placed on the giraffe’s stress levels, natural hormone cycles, and milk quality in cows. 

Description: Giraffe 2017 Tags: Giraffe 2017

Photo: Supplied

Experience at the film festival

“Absolutely amazing. Totally beyond our frame of reference as South Africans.” This is how Dr Deacon describes his experience of the three days in Washington DC during the film festival.

“It was an absolute honour to be part of the global preview of the film and to be able to work with Ashley Davison, the director of the film, and his team. I am just a rural farm boy who dreams big, and now this dream is known worldwide!” he says. 

The film, which will be launched in April, will be screened in South Africa on the National Geographic channel in May 2017. Meanwhile, the film will also be shown at eight other film festivals in the US. 

Work will start on a follow-up documentary in October and Dr Deacon is excited about the prospect. A mobile X-ray machine will be available from October. Internal sonars could also be performed on each of the animals. Researchers from around the world will form part of the team which will be led and co-ordinated by Dr Deacon and his co-workers at the UFS.

Former articles: 

18 Nov 2016: http://www.ufs.ac.za/templates/news-archive-item?news=7964 
23 August 2016: http://www.ufs.ac.za/templates/news-archive-item?news=7856 
9 March 2016:Giraffe research broadcast on National Geographic channel
18 Sept 2015 Researchers reach out across continents in giraffe research
29 May 2015: Researchers international leaders in satellite tracking in the wildlife environment

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