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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Parking at UFS for visitors

2007-11-10

UFS creates more parking for visitors

In its effort to make it easier for visitors to park on the Main Campus of the University of the Free State (UFS) in Bloemfontein, two paid parking areas will be put into operation as from Monday, 5 November 2007.

These parking areas are part of a comprehensive new parking strategy of the UFS, which is being implemented since September 2007. As part of the strategy, areas of the central campus have been reserved for staff and visitors and hundreds of new parking areas were developed for students at the entrance in Wynand Mouton Avenue (at the Faculty of Health Sciences) and the entrance in DF Malherbe Avenue (at the Agriculture Building).

“The paid parking areas for visitors, which are as close as possible to the busy and largely closed-off central campus, were created as an additional service to visitors,” said Ms Edma Pelzer, Director of Physical Resources at the UFS.

According to Ms Pelzer, persons who attend meetings, seminars or short courses, visiting colleagues, consultants, service providers, family of students and staff members, clients, etc. can make use of this parking.

“We have found that it is often difficult for visitors to obtain parking in or close to the central campus. Now they will have a choice to either park in the visitors parking areas at a minimal fee or to park in any of the open unreserved parking areas on campus,” said Ms Pelzer.

The areas, which will be closed off behind booms on weekdays from 06:00 until 18:00, are situated to the eastern side of the “Red Square”, east of the CR Swart and Idalia Loots Buildings and west of Campus Avenue North between the Psychology and the Flippie Groenewoud Buildings.

Media Release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@ufs.ac.za
2 November 2007

Parking for visitors: Important notice:

As from Monday 5 November 2007 two paid parking areas on the UFS Campus will be put into operation. The areas will be closed off behind booms on weekdays from 06:00 until 18:00. These will be manned and R3 per hour will be charged.

The following areas are involved:

P3: The area to the east of the “Red Square”, east of the CR Swart and Idalia Loots Buildings.
P6: The area to the east of Campus Avenue North between the Psychology and Flippie Groenewoud Buildings.

The friendly co-operation of users of motor vehicles on campus is requested to allow this implementation to proceed as smoothly as possible.

Parking for visitors: More information

The strategy to create paid parking areas for visitors

The decision to reserve areas in the central campus areas for the convenience of visitors was taken as part of the comprehensive new parking strategy of the UFS approved by the Executive Management in May 2007 and which is being implemented since September.

All visitors need not park in these areas. Visitors may park for free on any open (unreserved) parking bay on campus. These paid parking areas for visitors, as close as possible to the busy and largely closed-off central campus, have been created as an additional service to visitors.

The strategy to close off parts of the central campus for staff members and visitors was implemented after sufficient alternative parking areas had been developed for students.

What is meant by the term “visitors”?

It includes all persons who are not students of staff members of the UFS and who visit the campus for one reason or another. Persons who attend meetings, seminars or short courses, visiting colleagues, consultants, service providers, family of students and staff members, et cetera are included.

As at present, it will, of course, be possible to make special arrangements with Protection Services to make it possible for VIP visitors to park as near as possible to their destinations.

No student or staff member will be actively prevented from parking in the area. They will, however, be discouraged by the fact that R3 per hour will be charged without exception.

The visitors’ parking area and access to it

P3: The area to the east of the “Red Square”, east of the CR Swart and Idalia Loots Buildings. The area is within easy walking distance for visitors to, among others, the following buildings: George du Toit Administration Building, Theology Building, Idalia Loots Building, CR Swart Building, Johannes Brill Building, Van der Merwe Scholz Hall.

The area is conveniently accessible from the following entrances: Nelson Mandela Drive, Groenewoud Street and Wynand Mouton Drive.
P6: The area to the west of Campus Avenue North, between the Psychology and Flippie Groenewoud Buildings. The area is within easy walking distance for visitors to all the academic buildings in the central campus, such as the Chemistry Building, Stef Coetzee Building, the Geography Building, et cetera and located directly opposite the general information point on the Thakaneng Bridge.

The area is conveniently accessible from the following entrances: Fürstenburg Road and DF Malherbe Avenue (at the Agriculture Building).

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