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DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS staff get salary increase of at least 7,25%
2007-11-20

 

During the signing of the UFS's salary agreement were, from the left: Mr Olehile Moeng (Chairperson of NEHAWU), Prof. Frederick Fourie (Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS), and Prof. Johan Grobbelaar (Chairperson of UVPERSU and spokesperson of the Joint Union Forum).
 

UFS staff get salary increase of at least 7,25%

The University of the Free State’s (UFS) management and trade unions have agreed on an increase of 9,32% in the service benefits of staff for 2008. This includes a general minimum salary increase of 7,25%.

A once-off non-pensionable bonus of R3 000 will be paid in December 2007.

The agreement was signed today by representatives of the UFS management and the trade unions, UVPERSU and NEHAWU.

“As the state subsidy level is unfortunately not yet known, remuneration could vary several percentage points between a window of 7,25 and 8,39%,” said Prof. Frederick Fourie, Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS.

Should the government subsidy be such that the increase falls outside the window of 8,39%, the parties will negotiate again.

The bonus will be paid to staff members who were employed by the UFS on UFS conditions of service on 14 November 2007 and who assumed duties before 1 October 2007.

The bonus is payable in December 2007 in recognition of the role played by staff during the year to promote the UFS as a university of excellence and as confirmation of the role and effectiveness of the remuneration model.

“It is important to note that this bonus can be paid due to the favourable financial outcome of 2007,” said Prof. Fourie.

“Our intention is to pass the maximum benefit possible on to staff without exceeding the limits of financial sustainability of the institution.  For this reason, the negotiating parties reaffirmed their commitment to the Multiple-year Income-related Remuneration Improvement Model used as a framework for negotiations.  The model and its applications are unique and has as a point of departure that the UFS must be and remain financially sustainable,” said Prof. Fourie and Prof. Johan Grobbelaar, Chairperson of UVPERSU and Spokesperson of the Joint Union Forum.

The agreement provides for the phasing in of fringe benefits of contract appointments for 2008.  This includes the implementation of a pension/provident fund, housing allowance and the medical fund allowance as from 1 January 2008 to staff who are appointed on a contract basis.

Agreement was also reached that 1,0% will be allocated for structural adjustments in order to partially address the backlog in respect of remuneration packages of other higher education institutions.  These adjustments will be made after further investigations during 2008. 

The post levels that have been earmarked for adjustment are academic staff (associate professor, professor and dean) as well as certain post levels in the support services.

An additional R500 000 will be allocated to accelerate the rate of phasing in the medical fund allowances. 

The implementation date for the salary adjustments is 1 January 2008, but could possibly be implemented only at a later stage due to logistical reasons.   The adjustment will be calculated on the remuneration package.

The agreement also applies to all staff members of the Vista and Qwaqwa Campuses whose conditions of employment have already been aligned with those of the Main Campus.

Prof. Grobbelaar said that salary negotiations were never easy, but the model is an important tool.  He said the Joint Union Forum illustrates that people from different groups can work together if they share the same commitment and goal.

In 2007, a total salary adjustment of 5,7% and a once-off non-pensionable bonus of R2 000 was paid to staff.

Media Release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Assistant Director: Media Liaison  
Tel:  051 401 2584
Cell:  083 645 2454
E-mail:  loaderl.stg@ufs.ac.za
20 November 2007

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