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DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS opens centenary complex
2004-10-12

Today, 12 October 2004, the University of the Free State (UFS) opens the Centenary complex on the grounds of the old Reitz dining hall.

Me Edma Pelzer, Director: Physical Resources and Special Projects at the UFS, said the Centenary complex is furnished mainly for personnel and alumni, just as the Thakaneng Bridge was primarily established as gathering place for students.

On 10 March 2004 the UFS management held the first official function in the half completed complex during the unveiling of the memorial stone by the Rector, Prof Frederick Fourie. What made this occasion remarkable is that old President FW Reitz, 81 years earlier, on 10 March 1923, also laid a memorial stone at the same place, said Ms Pelzer. The complex originally existed of the Reitz dining hall, which was named after old president Reitz, a hostel father residence and administration offices. In historical documents about old president Reitz it is mentioned that already as chief judge he campaigned for the establishment of a university in the Free State and later as president he proceeded with this attempt.

With the opening of the Thakaneng-bridge food preparation and -serving at the Reitz dining hall was discontinued. The kitchen and dining facilities became obsolete. With the evacuation of the old student centre replacements for the Bloemfontein- and Anlgo American-rooms were to be found elsewhere on campus. The idea to convert the historical Reitz building complex in an UFS reception and a space for socialising started to exist.

Ms Pelzer said the UFS is committed to treat its history and its old buildings with respect and to utilise it optimally to enhance the strategic objectives of the university. The Centenary complex must communicate the university as an established, quality institution with an interesting history to visitors. It must serve as a home for alumni and as a one stop visiting point for important visitors who do not have time to experience the whole campus.

In the complex provision is made for entertaining and kitchen facilities, a museum where valuable UFS-memorabilia are kept and exhibited, an amfi theatre and an art gallery which would for the first time offer a permanent home for the art collection of the UFS. Venues will accommodate groups from between 15 to 300 persons.

The reception area will be used by the UFS for occasions such as chancellors’ functions, smaller and bigger receptions for the rector, tea parties after graduation ceremonies, openings of conferences and long service awards. The university also plans to rent out the complex for prestige occasions where the UFS personnel and alumni are involved.

The opening of the Centenary complex form part of the Centenary celebrations of this week. Many of this week’s activities will take place in the complex.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
12 October 2004

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