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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Researcher uses NRF funding for studies to conserve plant and animal life
2017-04-18

Description: Butterfly Tags: Butterfly

It is difficult to survey all different types of
plants and animals and is therefore necessary to
choose one representative group. Butterflies are
relatively cheap and easy to sample. They are
known to be linked to specific habitats and to
respond to human pressures, such as farming.
Photo: Dr Falko Buschke


Earth is the only planet we know of that contains life. The variety of different plants and animals is remarkable: from the giant whales that swim our oceans, to the tiny mosses that grow on the shaded sides of rocks.  Many of these plants and animals are important to humans. For example, trees provide us with oxygen to breathe, bees pollinate our crops and owls control pests. More importantly though, we can tell a lot about society from the way it cares for nature. Humans are the custodians of the planet and the way we care for nature reflects the way we value life.

Dr Falko Buschke, Lecturer at the Centre for Environmental Management at the University of the Free State, is interested in understanding how the distribution of biodiversity [the variety of living things in nature] in time and space influences the way we should conserve and manage nature.

Earth is losing biodiversity faster than at any time in human history
The planet is losing biodiversity faster than at any time in human history. “There is an urgency to conserve plants and animals before they are lost forever. Nature is complex, so the way we study it should embrace this complexity. We should not rely on limited data on one type of species from one place and assume that it will also apply elsewhere. Instead, it is important that biodiversity research is comprehensive in the types of plants and animals while also considering that ecological and evolutionary processes vary through time and across geographic space,” he said.

To conduct his research, Dr Buschke uses a variety of research tools, including biological data surveyed directly from nature, spatial data from satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems databases, and data generated though custom-built computer simulations.

"There is an urgency to conserve
plants and animals before they
are lost forever."

Field work in the eastern Free State
Although parts of the eastern Free State are considered a global priority for biodiversity conservation, it is mainly privately owned commercial farmland. This means that it is important that plants and animals can survive despite living side by side with agricultural production.

“My project investigates whether the sandstone outcrops, known as inselbergs (island-mountains), are safe havens for plants and animals. Because it is difficult to survey all the different types of plants and animals, it is necessary to choose one representative group. That is where butterflies come in. Butterflies are relatively cheap and easy to sample. They are known to be linked to specific habitats and to respond to human pressures, such as farming,” he said. “Once this butterfly data is collected, it can be linked to satellite information on plant growth patterns. This will provide a clearer picture of whether plants and animals can persist side-by-side with commercial agriculture”.

Dr Buschke has just begun surveys that will carry on until the end of this year. “This 12-month project is funded under the Foundational Biodiversity Information Programme through the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) and the National Research Foundation (NRF).

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