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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Power shortage: Measures to be implemented immediately
2008-01-31

1. In order to avoid the further implementation of power sharing, electricity companies countrywide are requiring, in addition to measures announced for domestic consumers, that major power consumers save a certain percentage of power.

2. Die UFS is one of the 100 largest clients of Centlec, the local electricity distribution company. During a meeting last Thursday evening with the 100 largest clients, it was indicated that the UFS had to deliver a saving of 10%. The details are as follows:

  • Provision is made to a certain extent for an increase in electricity consumption. The calculation is done as follows: maximum consumption for 2007+6%-10%.
  • This entails a saving during peak times, as well as a saving regarding the total number of units consumed.
  • The saving is calculated on a monthly basis.
  • Saving measures must be implemented immediately (from 7 March). If electricity-saving goals are not attained, power sharing will be resumed from 10 March.

3. The UFS has been controlling its peak demand by means of an energy control system for many years. The geysers of residences and certain central air-conditioning systems were linked to the control system in order to shift energy consumption to non-peak times.

4. In order to attain the goal of 10%, it is necessary to implement further energy control systems and additional measures – which requires time and money. Attention will have to be given, inter alia, to the following:

  • The 1000+ portable air-conditioning units on the campus (huge power guzzlers) must be connected to energy control appliances and systems.
  • All the filament bulbs must be replaced.

7. The UFS will be conducting high-level talks with Centlec later this week with a view to:

  • conveying the unique needs of the UFS in detail;
  • stating the impact of building and refurbishing projects that are currently in the implementation and planning phases;
  • requesting understanding for the fact that the UFS does not have the capacity to immediately deliver the 10% saving.
     

It is evident from discussions thus far that Centlec is sympathetic and wants to help, but also that immediate action and co-operation are expected from the UFS. During the meeting, the UFS must also report back on steps already taken (since 7 March) in this regard.

8. The installation of the emergency power units for the large lecture-hall complexes and a few other critical areas, which has already been approved, is continuing. About R3m is being spent on this. Additional emergency power needs reported to Physical Resources via line managers are currently being investigated with a view to obtaining a cost estimate and subsequently determining priorities in consultation with line managers.

It is recommended that:

a) All line managers, staff members and students be requested to give their full co-operation with regard to saving electricity in every possible way, and that current operational arrangements be amended if possible with a view to promoting power saving. 

Staff, students and other users of campus facilities be requested to see to it that lights and air conditioning (individual units) in unused areas are switched off.

b) The following measures drawn up in co-operation with electrical engineers come into effect immediately:

Arrangements to be made by Physical Resources staff:
(Additional capacity to be able to complete everything within a reasonable period of time will have to be found and funded. This aspect will be taken up with the line managers concerned):

  • The geysers of all office buildings will be switched off at the distribution board. Staff are requested to use a kettle for washing dishes, and are warned not to switch appliances on again themselves.
  • In all office buildings where 12V and 15W downlighters and uplighters remain switched on for decorative purposes and do not serve as primary illumination, the light switches will be disconnected.
  • Lighting in cloakrooms will be checked, and illumination levels will be reduced if possible.
  • All light armatures must be replaced by CFL types.
  • All lights on the grounds will be checked to ensure minimum power consumption.
  • The upper limit of all central cooling systems currently regulated via the energy control system must be set to 24 degrees.

Arrangements to be made by Kovsie Sport:

  • Sport activities requiring sports field illumination must be scheduled after 20:00 in the evening (the lights may not be on between 18:00 and 20:00.)
  • Sports field illumination must be managed so that such lights are not switched on unnecessarily.
     

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