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DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS announces the closure of Reitz Residence and the establishment of an institute for diversity
2008-05-27

Statement by Prof. Teuns Verschoor, Acting Rector of the UFS

The Executive Management of the University of the Free State (UFS) today announced a unanimous decision to close the Reitz Residence, effective at the end of the current university semester, and establish an institute for diversity on the same premises.

Four students from the Reitz Residence were responsible for making the now infamous Reitz video, depicting four female colleagues from the University and a worker of Prestige Cleaning Services who were lured into participating in a mock initiation ceremony during which they were humiliated and demeaned.

University management repeated its strong condemnation of the video, made in apparent protest against the University’s integration policy implemented at 21 residences accommodating some 3 400 students on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein.

The Reitz video reopened racial wounds, and is deeply regretted. It was an isolated manifestation of resistance to the impact of ongoing transformation initiatives at the University. The video and other acts of public violence and vandalism on the campus have undermined the efforts of the University to foster diversity in student and staff life and create an inclusive institutional culture on the campus.

The actions of a relatively small group of students also inflicted severe damage on the University’s reputation and standing in the local and international academic community. The UFS management had therefore decided that closure of the Reitz Residence was an unavoidable strategic imperative and an important gesture of reconciliation towards all South Africans who had been offended.

The University has apologised unreservedly for the video. Two of the students who were still residents in Reitz were barred from the campus and subsequently terminated their studies at the UFS, while the other two students had already completed their studies last year.

In an endeavour to make restitution and to offer a lasting contribution to transformation, both at the UFS and in the country as a whole, the UFS has committed itself to establishing an institute for diversity on the premises of the former Reitz Residence.

Reitz will therefore be closed as a residence from 20 June 2008. The UFS has appointed a fully representative special committee to assist current Reitz residents in finding alternative accommodation.

The Institute for Diversity is envisaged as a centre of academic excellence for studying transformation and diversity in society – a living laboratory for combating discrimination and enabling and enhancing reconciliation in societies grappling with the issues of racism, sexism and xenophobia.

The declaration of Higher Education South Africa (HESA) published on 28 March 2008 highlighted that racism, intolerance and discrimination are societal phenomena present on many campuses. However, these issues are not restricted to institutions of higher learning, and are symptomatic of a broader social malaise.

In responding to the challenge faced by the University regarding its own transformation issues, as well as those faced by the country, the UFS will study the anti-transformational impulses on the campus as a microcosm of much broader socio-political challenges. The University will transform itself over time into a beacon of hope, combating racism and other forms of discrimination in South Africa and elsewhere in the world.

The Institute for Diversity will add impetus to the University’s existing transformation programme. Six strategic clusters, including a transformation cluster, were created in 2007 as part of the University’s long-term strategic planning.

The University has already provided seed capital of R1 million to design and establish the Institute. Planning will take place during 2008/09, with the Institute being formally opened in the 2010 academic year. An international fund-raising drive to raise an initial target of R50 million will be launched shortly.

Note to editors: The Reitz video was apparently made late last year, but only entered the public domain on 26 February 2008.

Media Release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@ufs.ac.za  
27 May 2008


UFS e phatlalatsa ho kwalwa ha hostele ya Reitz le ho thehwa ha Institute for Diversity

Phatlalatso ka Prof. Teuns Verschoor, Morektoro ya tshwereng mokobobo wa UFS

Kajeno bolaodi ba Yunivesithi ya Freistata (UFS) bo phatlaladitse qeto e ananetsweng ke bohle ya ho kwalwa ha hostele ya Reitz mafelong a sehla sena sa pele sa dithuto (semester), le ho thehwa ha Institute for Diversity meahong eo ya Reitz.

Baithuti ba bane ba hostele ya Reitz ba ile ba eba le seabo kgatisong ya video e mpe moo basebetsi ba bane ba bomme ba yunivesithi le mosebetsi wa khamphane ya Prestige Cleaning Services ba ileng ba hohelwa ho ba le seabo mme ba tlontlollwa le ho nyenyefatswa hampe.

Bolaodi ba yunivesithi bo boetse ba nyatsa ka mantswe a bohale video eo e ileng ya hatiswa ka maikemisetso a ho ipelaetsa kgahlanong le leano la diphethoho dihosteleng tse 21 tsa yunivesithi Bloemfontein tseo e leng bodulo ho bathuti ba ka bang 3400.

Morektoro ya tshwereng mokobobo wa UFS, Prof. Teuns Verschoor, o boletse hore video eo ya Reitz e boetse e butse maqeba a semorabe mme e seollwa ka matla. O re e ne e le ketsahalo e ikgethileng ya boipelaetso kgahlanong le diteko tse tswelang pele tsa ho tlisa diphethoho yunivesithing. O re video eo le diketsahalo tse ding tsa merusu le tshenyo ya thepa khamphaseng di setisitse diteko tsa yunivesithi tsa ho tlisa poelano hara baithuti le basebetsi, le ho theha moetlo o akaretsang ka hare ho yunivesithi.

O tswetse pele ka hore diketso tseo tsa sehlotshwana sa baithuti di boetse tsa senya yunivesithi serithi le lebitso mona hae le dinaheng tse ding. Kahoo bolaodi ba UFS bo nkile qeto yah ore ho kwalwa ha hostele ya Reitz ke ntho o kekeng ya qojwa mme e boetse ke mohato wa bohlokwa wa poelano ho ma-Afrika Borwa ohle a anngweng ke taba ena.

Yunivesithi e kopile tshwarelo mabapi le video ena. Ba babedi ba baithuti ba amehang kgatisong ya video eo, ba neng ba ntse ba dula hosteleng ya Reitz, ba ile ba thibelwa ho kena khamphaseng mme yaba ba tlohela dithuto tsa bona, ha ba bang ba babedi bona ba ne ba se ba phethetse dithuto tsa bona selemong se fetileng.

Prof. Verschoor o boletse hore ho leka ho kgutlisetsa maemo setlwaeding le ho tshehetsa leano la diphethoho UFS le naheng ka bophara, UFS e ikanne ho theha Institute for Diversity hona meahong eo ya Reitz.

Kahoo hostele ya Reitz e tla kwalwa ho tloha ka la 20 Phupjane 2008. UFS e thontse komiti e ikgethang e akaretsang bohle ho thusa baithuti ba dulang hosteleng ena hajwale ho fumana bodulo bo bong.

Institute for Diversity e tla ba setsha se kgabane sa dithuto tsa diphethoho le poelano setjhabeng – setsha se tla lwantshana le kgethollo mme se kgothalletse le ho matlafatsa poelano hara batho ba tobaneng le mathata a kgethollo ya mmala, ya bong le lehloyo la melata.

Tokomane ya Higher Education South Africa (HESA) e phatlaladitsweng ka la 28 Hlakubele 2008, e pepesa dintlha tse amanang le kgethollo ya mmala, tlhokeho ya mamellano le kgethollo ka kakaretso e le dintho tse teng dikhamphaseng tse ngata. Dintlha tsena ha di teng feela ditsheng tsa thuto e phahameng, empa le setjhabeng ka kakaretso.

Prof. Vershoor o boletse hore UFS e tla lekola dikgato tse kgahlanong le diphethoho ka hare ho khamphase jwaloka karolo ya diphepetso tse nammeng hara setjhaba ka kakaretso. O re yunivesithi e tla fetoha ha nako e ntse e tsamaya ho ba mohlala o motle wa tshepo, twantsho ya kgethollo ya mmala le mekgwa e meng ya kgethollo Afrika Borwa le lefatsheng ka bophara.

Institute for Diversity e tla thusa ho matlafatsa lenaneo la jwale la diphethoho la yunivesithi. Ho thehilwe di Strategic Clusters tse tsheletseng selemong se fetileng, tse kenyeletsang Transformation Cluster, jwaloka karolo ya merero ya UFS.

Yunivesithi e se e nyehelane ka tjhelete e kana ka diranta tse milione ho rala le ho theha institute ena. Ho rerwa ha yona ho tla etswa ka 2008/09, mme institute ena e tla bulwa semmuso selemong sa dithuto sa 2010. Haufinyana ho tla thakgolwa letsholo la matjhaba la ho bokeletsa tjhelete e kana ka diranta tse dimilione tse mashome a mahlano.


Tlhokomediso ho bahlophisi ba ditaba: Video ya Reitza e hatisitswe selemong se fetileng mme ya hlahella pepeneng ka la 26 Hlakola 2008.

Phatlalatso ya boraditaba
E entswe ke: Lacea Loader
Motlatsa molaodi: Dikgokahano
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@ufs.ac.za  
27 Motsheanong 2008








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