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10 May 2024 Photo Supplied
Dr Harlan Cloete
Dr Harlan Cloete is a research fellow in the Department of Public Administration and Management at the University of the Free State.

Opinion article by Dr Harlan Cloete, Department of Public Administration and Management, University of the Free State (UFS).


I know that there is great hype around the upcoming national and provincial elections on 29 May, some going as far as calling this our second 1994 – I get that. But I think that we might be making too much of this and forget that what counts is what takes place between elections. For some reason, we seem to think that voting is enough to bring about change, and we can then sit back as citizens and not wait for services to be delivered to us. Or we think that the coalition government will be the saviour. That we have left it to politicians to decide our fate and we simply capitulate to their whims is beyond me. Sometimes I even hear the argument from academics that ‘I do not vote because it will legitimise the current corrupt system’, or ‘I want nothing to do with politics’ – yet politics has everything to do with you, every day.

Performance of municipalities

South Africa is blessed with a three-tier democracy. Constitutional democracy spells out the Bill of Rights and the governance framework. Representative democracy allows the space to elect political leaders through the ballot, and finally participatory democracy calls for active participation between elections. Locally, this is expressed in the co-creation of an integrated development plan with communities and ward committees – real grassroots governance. However, this process has not been without fault, with many officials simply using this process as a tick-box exercise that makes a mockery of genuine participation that would bring dignity to contested spaces.  What is worse is the performance of our municipalities. Let us take the Free State province as an example. As reported by the Department of Cooperative Development, all 23 municipalities in the Free State are deemed dysfunctional. Consequently, it is no wonder that not a single municipality has managed to attain a clean audit from the Auditor General in the past decade. Ratings Afrika earlier reported that the financial situation of the Mangaung Municipality is so dire that it is struggling to pay its suppliers on time; the capital was also rated the worst metropolitan performer in the Good Governance Africa rating for 2023.This is an inditement on the entire local governance system.

Active citizenship

The National Development Plan identifies active citizenship as the key ingredient to ensure that this democracy works. Eve Ensler reminds us that an activist is someone who cannot but help fight for something. That person is usually not motivated by a need for power, money, or fame but is in fact driven slightly mad by some injustice, some cruelty, some unfairness, so much so that he or she is compelled by some internal moral engine to act or make it better.  Through my Great Governance ZA podcast, I found that there is no shortage of active citizens in our country. Over the past three years, I have conversed with more than 100 passionate people. In Bloemfontein, I crossed paths with Boeta Swart – his organisation Anchor of Hope gets the job done; in the Winnie Madikizela municipality, ethical leader Luvuyo Mahlaka runs a tight ship; and youth development champion and author, Frank Julie, generously shares his gifts and talents throughout the land.  There are so many untold stories.

Activists – need I remind you – are not just active during elections but work passionately in concert with others to make the world a better place. The 2024 elections are important, yes, but the watershed election will be the 2026 local government elections when we will elect new ward councillors and ward committees. And coalitions are here to stay, it is a natural consequence of the electoral system, says Prof Jaap de Visser of the Dullah Omar Institute. The Sustainable Development Plan – specifically goal 16 – speak to peace and justice and strong institutions through partnerships (goal 17). Our future is partnerships – coalitions of people with the right heads, hearts, and eager hands. And yes, sometimes we will be tested and called to work with people that we do not like, agree with, or trust as Adam Kahane puts it. But that should not deter us. Democracy is difficult work, a contact sport.

Make an even greater impact

Voting or participation in elections is a first step, but I am afraid this is not enough. As an academic community specifically, we must use our privileged position in society to make an even greater impact, as advocated by the late Prof Bongani Mayosi, who argues that what matters most is service to society.

The National Development Plan concludes that a comprehensive, coordinated, multi-sectoral approach to development is required. Such an approach must include partnerships between civil society, the private sector, government, and academia. To make this coalition work will require buckets of good(will) and activism. We are on the brink of the new. God helps us as we do and dare.

*Dr Harlan Cloete is a pracademic and research fellow in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies at the University of the Free State. He is the founder of the Great Governance ZA podcast and founder member of community radio KC107.7 in Paarl in 1996.

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News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research
2014-10-22

 

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge
Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including:  Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained.  The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.  

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5.  The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small.  In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.


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