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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Plant scientists address wheat rust diseases at SASPP congress
2015-02-02

Pictured from the left are: Prof Zakkie Pretorius, Dr Botma Visser and Howard Castelyn.
Photo: Supplied

In his research, Dr Botma Visser, researcher in the Department of Plant Sciences at the University of the Free State, highlighted the population dynamics of the stem rust fungus (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici) in Southern Africa. In recent years, two foreign stem rust races were introduced to South Africa, and a local virulence adaptation occurred in a third.

All of these races form part of the Ug99 group, a highly virulent collection of rust races endangering wheat production in many parts of the world. Despite the fact that half of the members of the Ug99 race group is prevalent in South Africa, Dr Visser’s work has clearly shown that Ug99 did not have its origin here. This emphasised the need to include neighbouring countries in the annual stem rust surveys, to proactively identify new races that could threaten local wheat production. In his research, Dr Visser also mentioned the way in which he has optimised modern molecular tools to accurately detect Ug99 isolates.

Dr Visser is one of three scientists from the Department of Plant Sciences that addressed delegates attending the biennial congress of the Southern African Society for Plant Pathology (SASPP) on the Bloemfontein Campus earlier this month on progress regarding research on wheat rust diseases conducted at the UFS.

Howard Castelyn, a PhD student in Plant Sciences, presented his research on quantifying fungal growth of the stem rust pathogen in wheat varieties displaying genetic resistance. This resistance, which is best expressed in adult plants, has the potential to remain durable in the presence of new rust variants. His presentation at the congress focused on optimising microscopic and molecular techniques to track fungal development in stem tissues of adult plants. These results now allow scientists to link rust infection levels and cellular responses with particular resistance genes expressed by the wheat plant, and contributing to the understanding and exploitation of durable resistance.

Prof Zakkie Pretorius presented his research, explaining how new genetic diversity for resistance to the stripe (yellow) rust fungus (Puccinia striiformis) is discovered, analysed and applied in South Africa. This research, conducted in collaboration with Dr Renée Prins and her team at CenGen, is unravelling the genetic basis of stripe rust resistance in a promising wheat line identified by Dr Willem Boshoff, a plant breeder at Pannar. The line and DNA markers to track the resistance genes will soon be introduced to South African wheat breeding programmes.

The rust research programme at the UFS contributes significantly to the successful control of these important crop diseases.

In addition to the contributions by the UFS, rust fungi featured prominently at the SASPP, with first reports of new diseases on sugar cane and Acacia and Eucalyptus trees in South Africa. A case study of the use of a rust fungus as a biological control agent for invasive plant species in the Western Cape, was also presented.

 

For more information or enquiries contact news@ufs.ac.za .

 

 

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