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07 April 2025 Photo Supplied
Dr Calvin Mudzingiri
Dr Calvin Mudzingiri, Assistant Dean: Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State, Qwaqwa Campus.

Opinion article by Dr Calvin Mudzingiri, Assistant Dean: Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State, Qwaqwa Campus 


The sudden hike of import tariffs by US President Donald Trump and his administration to countries across the world is set to reduce the volume of goods traded and affect citizen welfare across the globe. The Trump administration implemented a global 10% import tariff and a varying targeted reciprocal tariff to a host of countries, including South Africa. The reciprocal import tariff to be levied on South African export goods to the US is set at 30%. Historical data show that yearly trade between SA and US amounts to $23 billion and the US is SA’s the second biggest trading partner after China. The high tariff will reduce the competitiveness of South African export goods to American markets, leading to reduced demand of SA exports in US markets, low income to firms, job losses, low income to households and ultimately lower South African economic growth.

 

SA and US trade

South Africa exports platinum, locally assembled cars, raw aluminium, ferroalloys and agriculture products, among other goods, to the US. The implication of the US administration’s 30% tariff hike could result in job losses in the mining, automobile, agriculture and many other industries. More income losses to SA agricultural exports can also be experienced if the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) expires in September 2025, if the US congressmen decide not to renew the agreement. Given the low economic growth rate in South Africa in 2024, which is estimated at 0.6%, the tariff hike by the US will exacerbate sluggish economic growth and recovery from the COVID 19 pandemic. 

Statistics also show that SA imports energy products, machinery, vehicle, industrial and other consumer goods. The goods and services SA imports from the US play a critical role in developing and sustaining local industry. SA can decide to source the goods from other markets and if this happens with all economies where tariffs were imposed, the US will be worse off. There is a possibility that economies which received a tariff hike from the US will implement a reciprocal tariff hike to the US reducing the volume of global trade. The reduced trade volumes have dire implications for job creation, income generation by firms and households, making citizens worse off.


US current trade policy

It is important to note that President Trump administration’s trade policies are premised on a trade notion synonymous to ‘mercantilism’, which was practised in Europe between the 16th to 18th centuries. Under mercantilism, an economy aims to maintain a trade surplus, the government regulate the economy, discourage imports (in the case of the US using tariff hikes) and promote growth of home industries among other initiatives. Conventional economics wisdom has proved that policies pursued by the Trump administration of protectionism are a breeding ground for trade wars. There is great potential of fellow trading partners retaliating and if that happens, global citizens will be made worse off as they will be forced to pay high prices for goods due to additional costs driven by tariff hikes. In addition, US industry relies on raw materials from other countries. If the suppliers of raw material resources retaliate, the production cost model of US firms will rise, reducing export competitiveness of US exports.

Trump’s administration is calling for firms across the world to move and produce goods in the US to avoid tariff levies. The action works against the benefits of free trade and can affect firms’ comparative advantages. The production cost structure in the US can be higher than in other countries leading to firms realising low profits if they move to the US. It is essential to note that free trade with absolutely no trade barriers will enhance the welfare of citizens at large, since goods and services will be purchased at low prices. The US government’s act of over-regulating trade can limit economic growth not only of other countries but even that of the US economy.

 

Options for the SA government

In the face of trade adversity, the SA government must not fold its hands and do nothing. It is enlightening to note that the authorities have already initiated diplomatic and trade negotiations. Negotiations can possibly focus on tariff reduction, maintaining the AGOA, and delving deep in the logic used to arrive at the 30% tariff hike. The diplomatic initiatives must encompass improving perceptions and clarity of SA policies such as the Expropriation Act which is one of the reasons cited by the US administration in ratcheting the tariff trade war.

South Africa must re-orient its trading patterns and partnerships. The aggregate world gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than the US total production for goods and services. There is need for SA to improve trade relations with other economies to broaden its trade base. The current frosty trade relationship between SA and the US presents a window to strengthen trade with the EU, Asia, BRICS plus, Africa, and any other economy willing to get into trade partnerships. SA must explore other markets where the export goods still enjoy competitiveness.

To ensure economic resilience to trade wars in the long run, SA needs to seriously invest in research and development that promote value addition of local production, enhancing local production and technology advancement that can stimulate economies of scale, which can boost competitiveness of export goods. Competitiveness can be further enhanced by improving energy production efficiency, which is a crucial input of goods and services production. Developing a powerful and skilled human capital base can lead to labour productivity efficiency, further enhancing competitiveness. SA has a dilapidated infrastructure ranging from roads, rail, buildings and industry among others. Improving the infrastructure will go a long way in improving local production, leading to creation of jobs and improved incomes for households.

Boosting local economic activity can stimulate local consumption of goods as household income improves. If the incomes of SA citizens improve, there is a potential to increase local consumption. Goods meant for export markets can end up being consumed in the domestic markets, providing a homemade solution to dwindling export goods markets. The SA government must consider developing and supporting new industries that can compete in the local and international markets. In this way, the trade challenges posed by unfriendly US administration trade policies can present opportunities to the SA economy in the long run.

News Archive

The launch of a unique conservation project
2011-06-06

 

Our Department of Animal, Wildlife and Grassland Sciences launched a very special pilot project at Woodland Hills Wildlife Estate in Bloemfontein on Friday 03 June 2011, which aims to eventually aid in the conservation and study of one of Africa’s most graceful animals.

The project aims to provide the scientific basis needed for making future decisions in the best interests of the giraffe in the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park in the Northern Cape and involves collaring and monitoring the behaviour and movement of these animals via GPS.

Based on the public interest in the giraffe and the increased impact of the growing giraffe population on the vegetation in the area, SANParks has been considering the translocation of a number of Kgalagadi giraffe. Due to limited information regarding their adaptation success and potential impact on their new environment, thorough planning and subsequent monitoring of the species is required.

Mr Francois Deacon from our university decided to undertake a PhD study to address the existing challenges. This will be the first study of its kind, undertaken on giraffe.

He says he decided on this project because of his love for animals and conservation. “There are nine sub-species of giraffe and seven of these are already endangered. I want to involve people and make them aware of the plight of the animals and the need for conservation,” he said.

The project kicked off on Friday morning, with a group of students and curious nature-lovers tracking a herd of giraffe at Woodland Hills. The challenge laid in identifying one of the animals which could easily be collared with a GPS device, tranquilising it, and applying the device, without harming the animal.

After a young bull was identified, it was up to Dr Floris Coetzee, a veterinarian, to get close enough to the animal to tranquilise it, and to the group of students to catch it and hold it down. All this was done perfectly and the animal was fitted with its new collars. The collars were designed and made by Mr Martin Haupt, who gained extensive experience in the design of similar collars for other research studies.

Mr Deacon will spend the following two weeks personally monitoring the animal constantly, to ensure that the collars do not cause any discomfort or injury and to determine whether it should be removed or adapted.

It has taken Mr Deacon over a year to plan the collaring process and the associated study. He says the main challenges in the project are financial, since it will cost approximately R500 000 to run over five years.

Thus far he has been supported by Mr Pieter Malan of Woodland Hills, Mr Cas Kempff of Cas Kempff Consulting Engineers and Prof. Frans Swanepoel of the UFS’ Directorate of Research Development, all of whom have been benefactors of the project.
Information gathered from the pilot project will provide the data to assess how to best fit the collar onto the giraffe to ensure that the animal is comfortable and that the collar will last in the wild.  Scientific data will be generated and processed for use by the Woodland Hills Wildlife Estate management.

Should the pilot project be successful, between four and eight giraffe in the Kgalagadi will be tracked using the satellite GPS collars. The GPS collars will enable the constant recording of the location of individual giraffe for up to 2 years. This will allow control and monitoring of the animals in real-time.

The main benefits of the project include, amongst others, improved decision-making, informing tourism development, education and community involvement, improved sustainability and improved cross-border collaboration between South Africa and Botswana.

Anyone who wishes to get involved with the project or get more information, should contact Me. Sonja Buhrmann at sbuhrmann@vodamail.co.za or 0827735768.
 

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