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Opinion article by Dr Eugene Buthelezi, Department of Economics and Finance, University of the Free State

South Africa has crossed a painful fuel-price threshold. Petrol 95 unleaded now costs R30.25 a litre inland and R29.38 at the coast, over R1 500 to fill a 50-litre tank. In March, petrol was about R20.30. In seven months, the price has risen by nearly half. Demands for government action are understandable, but another broad fuel-levy cut would be expensive and poorly targeted. The priority must be protecting households least able to absorb the shock.

What R30 petrol means

Fuel affects almost everyone, taxi and bus fares, food transport, inflation, interest rates and household budgets. Petrol rose 12,4% in a single month, from R26.92 to R30.25 inland. Fuel is roughly 4% of the South African Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, so this could add close to half a percentage point directly to inflation, pushing headline inflation back above 5%, possibly to 5-6% in October and November. The effects spread predictably: first the fuel line in CPI and illuminating paraffin (up R4.77 to R31.82 a litre); then, within one to two months, minibus taxi and bus fares; then, over two to four months, food and goods, because diesel above R33 a litre wholesale feeds into every truck, tractor and delivery van. In South Africa, almost everything travels by road.

Not just a temporary problem

The increase is linked to higher oil prices from the US-Iran conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. If those pressures ease, some of the increase could reverse. But petrol will not return to R20 a litre soon. South Africa imports most refined fuel after refinery closures, exposing it to international prices, shipping costs and global disruptions. Fuel levies rise over time, regulated margins increase, and the rand remains vulnerable. Households should plan for fuel in the mid-to-high R20s as normal. The era of cheap petrol is over.

Who feels the shock most?

Poorer households are often hardest hit. They may buy little petrol but pay indirectly through higher taxi fares, food and paraffin. Many live far from work with few affordable alternatives. Middle-income households face higher petrol bills alongside vehicle finance, home loans and rising expenses. Someone travelling 1 500 km a month could pay about R400 more monthly. Rural and inland households face even greater burdens due to longer distances and higher inland prices. The impact is uneven: poorer households through transport and food, lower-middle-income through fuel and debt, rural through distance and limited alternatives.

Should government cut the fuel levy?

Targeted relief makes more sense than a broad levy holiday. A levy cut is fast and visible, but most benefit goes to car owners, who are not necessarily the poorest. The previous relief (April-June) cost R17 2 billion over three months. With government finances under pressure, another broad cut would require spending cuts or more borrowing. Instead, relief should be targeted: temporary increases to the SRD and child support grants, support for commuter and taxi fares, and help for households relying on paraffin. If the levy is reduced, it should be small, temporary, time-limited and credibly funded. The goal is not cheap petrol for all, but preventing a temporary shock from becoming permanent hardship for the vulnerable.

The cost goes beyond the petrol station

Higher fuel prices raise operating costs across the economy. Farmers, mines, manufacturers, retailers and logistics companies face higher costs, passing them to consumers or absorbing them through lower profits, investment and employment. Higher fuel prices raise inflation and limit the Reserve Bank’s ability to cut rates, while high rates weaken demand and increase debt burdens, potentially prolonging higher-for-longer rates. Fiscal policy is equally constrained: debt is high, revenue limited, and every rand for fuel relief is a rand unavailable for health, education, infrastructure or social protection.

What government should do

Government should accelerate its fuel-margin review and implement recommendations quickly. Regulated margins should be reassessed, and petrol prices could gradually be deregulated below a maximum cap to encourage competition, once consumer protections are in place. Margin reform would lower prices without costing the fiscus. The R2.25-per-litre RAF levy should be reformed, but cutting it before fixing the Fund would worsen its liabilities. A no-fault, defined-benefit model with lower legal costs could reduce long-term costs. Levy cuts should follow structural reform, not short-term relief. Restore reliable rail and bus services, reduce dependence on imported refined fuel, and accelerate the shift to electric and hybrid vehicles.

Protect people while fixing the system

South Africa cannot spend its way out of every fuel crisis, but households under pressure cannot absorb every international shock alone. The sensible response combines targeted short-term relief with long-term structural reform. Part of the current shock may reverse if oil prices fall and tensions ease. But R20 petrol is unlikely soon. Import dependence, higher levies and rising margins have lifted the structural floor. Deregulation can only touch regulated margins, not oil prices, the rand, or the fuel and RAF levies. Those are decisions for National Treasury.

Dr Buthelezi is an nGAP lecturer in Economics. He holds a PhD in Economics with specialisation in fiscal policy, public debt dynamics, and macroeconomic stability. His recent work examines fiscal consolidation, geopolitical risk, and the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets. He writes in his personal capacity.